Is Quantum Computing a Moon Shot? 🌙🌑🌛

The perils and collaboration of hype before massive consolidation. A 2022 perspective.

Photo by Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash

Hey Everyone,

Many Governments plan to spend more on National Defense as cybersecurity threats and geopolitical uncertainty complicate the global stage.

Since massive QE from 2008 onwards, venture capitalists have also been more prone to bet on speculative industries. Softbank’s failures have taught us as much about the nature of business as its success stories.

Quantum technology is approaching the mainstream. Goldman Sachs recently announced (back in 2021) that they could introduce quantum algorithms to price financial instruments in as soon as five years (around 2026).

In the 2020s some aspects of Quantum computing actually begin to become useful for companies. I’ve been tracking and writing about on this Newsletter many of these partnerships and pilots between QC startups and bigger corporations.

Photo by Jaimy de Hon on Unsplash

🌛 Is Quantum Computing a Moonshot?

Like Web3, VR or NFTs, Quantum computing has a certain glamor as a nascent field with tremendous potential. Quantum computing promises to transform the world, revolutionizing fields such as drug discovery, financial services, transportation and cybersecurity are filled with grandiose promises even before we have a scalable Quantum computing.

Physicists and business leaders however realize they can get rich on the hype. Honeywell anticipates that quantum will form a $1 trillion industry in the decades ahead. The top ten Quantum computing companies or teams have a lot of money riding on their efforts, and Governments are pouring money into the technology worried to be left behind.

💥 The Coming Consolidation of the Nascent Hype

There are so many approaches to try to make scalable quantum machines that many of the startups today won’t even exist in a decade or two. As QC startups glitter in and out of existence, BigTech Cloud leaders are likely to acquire the most viable of them, at significant discounts relative to their future worth, it will still be lucrative for the PhDs involved, but will likely end up in massive consolidation in the Cloud and in companies that already have a locked garden on the future of artificial intelligence and R&D spending in the $Billions.

🌌 Esoteric Science vs. Naïve Investors

There are several aspects of Quantum computing that are fairly esoteric and even speculative. This means with all the hype it’s difficult for potential investors, the public or shareholders to even evaluate the science behind the so-called Moonshots. This opens up a huge potential for fraudulent companies and leaders operating in the domain. We have seen this with other so-called disruptive industries for at least the last decade as well.

If you are serious about the implication of Quantum computing, you might want to have access to my paid content and commentary.