China's Unique Quantum Positioning

Can China win in Quantum, Space and A.I.?

Photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash

Welcome Back!

I continue to watch China’s progress in Quantum computing, Space and aeronautical engineering and their long-term trajectory using Quantum tech in space and for military purposes.

China’s New Quantum Cloud endeavor is impressive to me. Even as China’s stance to A.I. regulation means the Western FOMO euphoria over Generative A.I. is actually poses a serious risk to social stability of their one-party political order.

All of this is actually related, including Elon Musk praising China on his recent trip there. China has cloned various aspects of SpaceX which makes you wonder how advanced they really are in space-technology and things like quantum sensing and communications.

The rising tensions between China and the US with geopolitical risks straining global supply chains have prompted China to seek technological sovereignty in advanced semiconductors, quantum technology, AI, and more. What the Nvidia chip-ban did was actually super-charge China’s positioning regarding creating a self-sustainable supply chain for their A.I. chip and semiconductor industry. Meanwhile it’s fairly difficult for the U.S. to “slow down” China’s progress in Quantum computing research or its space-technology progress.

They could theoretically eclipse that of the U.S. by the last 2030s. Of course most American executives or politicians or National Defense employees cannot openly admit this. Some believe it has already occured.

Recently China's 176-qubit quantum computing platform went online, the PR is as usual vague and in broken English. However there are some signs of real innovation here. China plans to launch a medium-to-high Earth orbit quantum satellite soon, extending its claimed lead to a decade. That China aims to be the leader in A.I, quantuma and space in the mid 21st century is strategically scary for American nationalists and corporate leaders.

The way China as a State have leveraged blockchain and distributed ledger technology and even started a CBDC before other counties is truly remarkable and likely doesn’t get enough credit. So what does this all have to do with Quantum computing? China is showing a facility in keeping up and reiterating core technologies to suit its own global influence and version of Neo-Surveillance Capitalism. It’s E-commerce sector and digital app ecosystem is more dynamic and in many ways years ahead of the West in terms of consumer convenience, choice and variety of services.

Even their conception of what an app is, that it should lead to some sort of utility is really different from the advertising centric apps of the West. How ByteDance launches new apps and the rise of Temu a shopping app in the U.S. from Pinduoduo is a signal China might dominate the future of consumer apps. China’s emphasis on the EV movement and smart hybrid cars is also likely going to end up with multiple winners from China, although for now BYD comes to mind. While China doesn’t have the scale and variety of companies in the Cloud or Quantum computing startups, it has many advantages in how innovation actually takes place.

The ability to fast-track and centralize partnerships between the State and the corporate sector is one such example. Instead of letting companies become bloated monopolies, China has cut them down to size as we have seen with the Alibaba purge of 2020 to 2023. As a result of this corporate sector state collaboration, China has increased its state funding in Quantum to an estimated (but highly disputed) >$15 billion* in quantum research and advancement with its assorted applications from security to defense to AI.

This is a rambling post about the future of China in Quantum and how it’s all tied together to their Space ambitions, A.I. ambitions and engineering capabilities.